Could First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, take up the legendary mantel of Peter Risdale and economically destroy an institution he professes to love, largely to appease his own ego? Let me explain.
We remember back to those halcyon days, when Leeds were not only in the Premier League but challenging Manchester Utd for the title. More impressive was the run all the way to the semi-final of the Champions league where they were eventually beaten by runners up Valencia. Unfortunately if Leeds were adopt the mantel of legend it was to be of Icarus, rather than Hercules. Their flight to the top was financially disastrous with the the club splashing out on expensive players like Rio Ferdinand, gambling that continued, extended runs in Europe would fund their purchase and wages. To complete the metaphor , Leeds flew too close to the sun, eventually plummeting into the depths of League 1 as the financial adhesive which kept them airborne disintegrated. The experience of Leeds, serves a cautionary tale not just in football, but is an effective warning against hubris in other less important arenas. The governance of Scotland for example.
The rest of the SNP victory in these Parliamentary elections was the collapse of the Labour and Liberal Democrat vote, with these voters defecting largely to the SNP. This has handed the party a majority of seats, winning 69 out of the 129 available. As a result, this gives the SNP the chance to bring a long held dream to fruition, a referendum on independence. There are several issues of interest here.
To start on a lighter note, parts of the right-wing press have furiously denounced Labour as both architects of devolution, which has brought this constitutional calamity to a head by allowing those rouge Scots an independent parliament. Secondly they attack Labour and the Liberal Democrats for failing to 'hold the line in Scotland'. Alan Cochrane in the Telegraph refers to the 'little people' who run Scottish Labour as being no match for the political skills of Alex Salmond and as a result has brought us 'to the break up of the Union'. There is a certain irony in the Tories, who have long abandoned Scotland electorally, criticising the two parties who are still electorally relevant in Scotland for not stopping the SNP. What a potential Scottish referendum might bring is a debate on the nature of governance in the UK, over the centralising power of Westminster vs the desire for constitutional institutions which draw their power and legitimacy from the region which they represent. Fat chance, a debate over Scottish independence, and ultimately the fate of the union will be more underhanded, intellectually pointless than the AV referendum. With the three Westminster parties and the SNP playing for keeps, a referendum will not be a pleasant affair.
Right, back to Peter Risdale. The second, more pressing issue for Scotland is if increased political independence is worth truncating the Union as well as splitting Scotland off from the larger economic unit of the UK. Salmond has spoken in grandiose language about the establishment of a renewable energy manufacturing base, which will help to re-industrialise Scotland. The critical issue is over the North Sea oil and gas, can this provide the needed capital to re-invest in Scotland and make it economically viable in a globalised economy. Opponents of independence, frequently point to the importance of the bloc grant from Westminster to Scotland's economic performance as well as its provision of social services. Salmon's greatest test as a politician will be to explain that the potential for cuts in social services are a price worth paying for independence or that they will not manifest in any meaningful way.
If this is the case then Salmond will be recast as Peter Risdale but now in charge of a nation. Can the desire for what Salmond sees as the ultimate prize be reconciled with economic realities? If Scotland does vote to seek independence, then the best of luck to them both politically and economically. However what Salmond might discover is that the numbers simply don't add up and that these grandiose ambitions will be worth nothing if Scotland cannot rapidly establish itself as a viable nation state. If not a slow decent into the lower league of nations is on the cards. On the upside, scraping to defeat Liechtenstein’s football team wont be as bad in comparison.
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