F Scott Fitzgerald once stated
that ‘there are no second acts in American lives’. If President Obama is
re-elected in November this could well be the defining description of his
second term as he will face a much more restrictive political environment than
he faced in 2008. If returned to the White House he will likely be confronted
with a House of Representatives controlled by the Republicans and a closely
divided Senate. If this is the case then President Obama will be focused on
defending the accomplishments of his first term instead rather than pursuing
more of the ambitious legislative projects which defined it.
Whether Barack Obama or Mitt
Romney wins in November the president will be constrained by the political
composition of Congress and particularly the Senate. In contrast to 2008 when the
incoming President Obama entered office with a Senate majority of 60, the best
the winner of 2012 race can hope for is a slender majority in the upper
chamber. If Mitt Romney wins he will face a Democratic Caucus eager to use the
full arsenal of procedural delaying tactics that the Republicans used in
Obama’s first term.
The USA may be entering a period
where the Republican Party seeks to wield power through Congress, the strategy
the Democrats used for much of the 20th century. The recent census
resulted in traditionally Democratic states like New Jersey loosing
Congressional seats whilst states like Texas gained them. Winning the Senate is
a key objective for Republican Super PACs such as Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS
who are looking to win the four seats which would secure the Senate for the
GOP. With many more Democratic Senators facing re-election in 2012 the
Republicans have a structural advantage in the General Election which will make
their pursuit of a Senate majority that much easier.
If President Obama wins his
second term and faces a Republican controlled House and Senate then his
domestic priorities will likely be defensive in nature. He would look to defend
the Affordable Care Act, his signature achievement, from any Congressional
attempt to defund it. Critically he would seek to defend Democratic spending
priorities, such as Medicaid and Medicare, from bearing the brunt of any
contraction in federal spending.
